The Problem

The world feels like it is falling apart.  America (and the West generally) feels like it is fraying at the seams. At the heart of this feeling is a crisis of our own making. Namely, our crisis is a crisis of certainty. Put differently, today’s tension stems from each person’s certainty that he/she is right and others, by default, are wrong.

This crisis is most evident in our political institutions, but the same crisis manifests anywhere and anytime people come together.  The crisis of certainty is present in organizations (both for-profit and nonprofit). It exists in the boardroom and the frontline. It exists at home and with strangers.

We are certain about everything, and anyone who disagrees is wrong or dangerous. If you think you are immune, consider the following and ask yourself how often one of these thoughts has crossed your mind:

• I know, but they are confused.
• I am enlightened, but they are ignorant.
• I understand, but they just do not get it.
• I am altruistic, but they are dangerous.

One of my favorite movie quotes comes from the 1997 film Men in Black. The sci-fi comedy focuses on a secretive government agency, the Men in Black, which monitors extraterrestrial creatures seeking refuge on Earth.  “You remember Casablanca, right? Same thing, just no Nazis.”  In one particularly memorable scene, Agent K, a cantankerous veteran of the Men in Black, attempts to mollify a recruit and explain the need for the program’s secrecy:

“A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky animals, and you know it.

“Fifteen hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you will know tomorrow.”

Look past the historical inaccuracies of the quote and focus on two themes:

• Individuals are rational, but people are prone to irrational group thinking.
• Humanity is constantly coming to terms with the unknown.

While we cannot always address the irrationality of the masses, there is a practical solution for individuals when we align the themes of rational thought with the reality of confronting the unknown.

One Solution

To address this crisis of certainty, individuals can benefit from shifting from a mindset of certainty to one of curiosity. Curiosity, one of four critical mindsets in the Amplified Management Practice, involves questioning our assumptions and seeking a more profound understanding rather than dismissing opposing views. When our internal monologue exclaims, “They are confused,” we should ask ourselves, “What information am I missing?” When we think, “They are ignorant,” we should consider, “What don’t I understand about their situation?” Similarly, if we feel “They just don’t get it,” we should reflect on, “Where are my blind spots?” And if we think, “They are dangerous,” we should question, “How does my position threaten them?”

Even if this mindset does not change your position or theirs, it fosters more profound empathy and a more nuanced appreciation for others. This practice can help us engage with others as rational human beings rather than as mere adversaries.

Navigating Conflicts

Embracing curiosity through empathy and self-reflection is valuable, but it does not resolve every conflict. For instance, when two people have opposing viewpoints, it’s not always possible for both to be right simultaneously. Consider a car approaching a fork in the road: it can only turn left or right, not both. While alternative solutions like stopping or going off-road might apply in some cases, they are not always feasible.

To manage conflicts effectively, we need a structured approach:

1. Identify Guiding Principles: Start by clarifying the principles that underlie each position. Often, disagreements stem from different guiding principles rather than the outcomes themselves. If the principles are unsound, a change in direction may be necessary.
2. Evaluate Expected Outcomes: Assess the expected outcomes based on the principles. Expectations are hypotheses: “If we take this action, what specific result should we expect and by when?”
3. Set Reevaluation Criteria: Establish criteria for evaluating success and set a date for reevaluation. This helps ensure that all parties objectively assess decisions on their merit and effectiveness.
4. Plan for Adjustments: If the action does not achieve the desired result, determine how to change course. This escape plan helps prevent costly and potentially irreversible mistakes.
5. Commit to Action: Finally, commit to executing the decision while remaining open to reevaluation and adjustment. Effective decision-making involves following through but also adapting as necessary.

In practice, people often jump to outcomes without first clarifying underlying principles. Therefore, it is helpful to ask ourselves and each other, “Why do we want this outcome?” or “What principles govern this approach?” Using a mindset of curiosity, we must scrutinize our own principles with as much rigor as the principles of others. We also need to be open to the possibility of being wrong. The steps above provide an offramp for your ego; anyone can use the process to let go of unconscious bias. This requires all sides to reevaluate the decision and the results thoughtfully and honestly, with humility and good faith. Just as we expect others to commit to our action plan if we hold the stronger position, we must commit to others’ plans if they present a more robust and principled approach. Ultimately, humility is a prerequisite for curiosity and is crucial in adjusting our course when necessary.

Conclusion

The crisis of certainty challenges our ability to navigate complex issues and conflicts effectively. By adopting a mindset of curiosity and empathy, we can better understand differing perspectives and foster more constructive dialogue. While this approach may not resolve every disagreement, it can lead to more thoughtful and informed decisions. Embracing curiosity and disciplined action allows us to approach conflicts with a clearer perspective and work toward solutions that respect diverse viewpoints. Ultimately, this shift can help us address the broader crisis of certainty, fostering a more open and resilient society.